In the decades before the COVID-19 pandemic, annual improvements in U.S. life expectancy had been small but overall life expectancy had rarely declined. An exception was the annual reduction of 0.1 year for three consecutive years -- 2015, 2016, and 2017 -- which were attributed in part to increases in so-called "deaths of despair" among middle-aged whites related to drug overdoses, including opioids, as well as alcohol-related liver disease and suicide. The projected pandemic-related drop in life expectancy is about 10 times as large as the declines seen in recent years. The last major pandemic to significantly reduce life expectancy in a short period of time was the 1918 influenza pandemic, which research indicates reduced life expectancy by an extraordinary 7-12 years.

As of Wednesday, more than 10 million Americans had received their first COVID-19 vaccination dose, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But the vaccines may not be enough to immediately reverse the impact of the disease on U.S. life expectancy. "While the arrival of effective vaccines is hopeful, the U.S. is currently experiencing more daily COVID-19 deaths than at any other point in the pandemic," Andrasfay said. "Because of that, and because we expect there will be long-term health and economic effects that may result in worse mortality for many years to come, we expect there will be lingering effects on life expectancy in 2021."

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